His power numbers have indeed been consistent for quite a few seasons. However, given the year-to-year volatility in 5x5 categories, including power numbers, it is more likely that his numbers change than stay the same. A change toward even better numbers is possible but unlikely, since a positive change would shift his numbers, including power numbers, past the realm of believability. A better bet is that his numbers will decrease, if simply for no other reason than by chance.
My projections foresee 91 R, 28 HR, 85 RBI, 1 SB and a .2406 average in 503 AB. These numbers represent a modest drop in each category from 2009. Dunn is my 21st-ranked first baseman for mixed leagues, providing $1.53 above replacement. He is also my 47th-ranked outfielder, giving teams $2.34 above replacement. The most salient differences between my projections and his actual 2009 season appear in the HR and AVG categories. Considering Dunn set a career high for batting average (barely) in 2009 and taking into account his continuing struggles with the strikeout, a lower average is a prudent prediction. The reduced number of home runs is a result of my idea mentioned above that, in Dunn's case, negative change will be more likely than the status quo or positive change.
Given my projection of him, the smartest thing to do would be to pass on Dunn. In all probability, drafting him in a high round will result in a loss of value. Save your money or your draft pick for a player that will provide positive value. First base is a deep position with plenty of players that can offer similar value for a significantly lower cost.
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