Tuesday, March 16, 2010

2010 home run leaders

Here are the top 30 projected home run hitters for 2010:

  1. Albert Pujols - 48
  2. Ryan Braun - 45
  3. Evan Longoria - 41
  4. Alex Rodriguez - 40
  5. Adam Lind - 34
  6. Hunter Pence - 34
  7. Ryan Howard - 33
  8. Prince Fielder - 32
  9. Joey Votto - 32
  10. Lance Berkman - 31
  11. Jay Bruce - 31
  12. Ian Stewart - 31
  13. Brad Hawpe - 30
  14. Carlos Quentin - 29
  15. Troy Glaus - 29
  16. Aramis Ramirez - 29
  17. Adrian Gonzalez - 29
  18. Jason Kubel - 29
  19. Kendry Morales - 29
  20. Adam Dunn - 28
  21. Brian McCann - 28
  22. Matt Kemp - 28
  23. Colby Rasmus - 28
  24. Travis Snider - 28
  25. Mark Reynolds - 28
  26. Carlos Pena - 28
  27. Manny Ramirez - 27
  28. Miguel Cabrera - 27
  29. Chris Young - 27
  30. Mark Teixeira - 26
Despite the relatively high totals of several players like Bruce, Stewart, Hawpe, et al., those players do not register quite so highly in overall value. That is because better numbers across the categories rather than great numbers in one category are more likely to produce greater value. Players like Lind and Pence are rated much higher because they are expected to contribute significantly to three, four or even five categories.

Players who sport a precarious strikeout rate like Howard, Dunn, Reynolds and Pena reflect the probability that their power will be less likely to expand beyond their current prodigious rates. Players like Dunn and Pena are also more reliant on their power to create their value, therefore they are affected by a drop in power more than other players.

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