Thursday, March 11, 2010

Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira: who will be better in 2010?

Derek Jeter, A-Rod, and Mark Teixeira all produced very good numbers and were integral to the offensive success of the Yankees in 2009. However, 2010 is a new season full of unexplored possibilities. Let's take a look at what I project for each player in 2010:

Derek Jeter: 109 R, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 12 SB, .3026 AVG, and 618 AB

Alex Rodriguez: 99 R, 40 HR, 121 RBI, 9 SB, .2784 AVG, and 449 AB

Mark Teixeira: 104 R, 26 HR, 127 RBI, 1 SB, .2821 AVG, and 546 AB

How does this add up value-wise for each player? Alex Rodriguez contributes the most to the standings at $16.09 in mixed leagues. Jeter is next at $12.42. Teixeira is last in our group of three at $11.22.

I hedge my bets on A-Rod by factoring his recent injury history into his playing time projections. Even with an injury-adjusted amount of playing time, he should produce enough to justify an earlier selection. Counting stats shouldn't be a problem in the Yankees' lineup.

Despite a substantial projected drop in batting average and stolen bases for Jeter, he still maintains a great deal of value because of his overall production and his position; he ranked third on my projected list of mixed shortstops. Jeter's value increases slightly in AL-only leagues, where he is projected as the top shortstop.

Teixeira's position and reliance on one category (power) for a large part of his value means that a slight dip in home runs results in a relatively reduced value. My projection of only 26 HR for Teixeira doesn't reflect a disbelief in his skills but rather a skepticism of his ability to reproduce the power numbers of 2009; it was the second-highest HR total of his career, after all.

Of all three players, I would be most cautious when drafting Teixeira. ESPN suggests that he is worthy of a first-round pick. I disagree. I think Teixeira will be good, but not good enough to justify the cost of a first-round pick.
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