2010 strikeout leaders

Here are my top 30 pitchers in the strikeout category for 2010:

1. Tim Lincecum - 236
2. Cole Hamels - 217
3. Josh Beckett - 210
4. Chad Billingsley - 204
5. Ubaldo Jimenez - 203
6. Yovani Gallardo - 201
7. Matt Cain - 198
8. Max Scherzer - 198
9. Justin Verlander - 196
10. Felix Hernandez - 193
11. Zack Greinke - 193
12. C.C. Sabathia - 192
13. Matt Garza - 190
14. Dan Haren - 187
15. Scott Kazmir - 186
16. Javier Vazquez - 184
17. Johnny Cueto - 183
18. Ricky Nolasco - 181
19. Jered Weaver - 175
20. Adam Wainwright - 174
21. Josh Johnson - 173
22. Clayton Kershaw - 173
23. Tommy Hanson - 172
24. Cliff Lee - 169
25. A.J. Burnett - 169
26. Edwin Jackson - 169
27. Jake Peavy - 167
28. Jon Lester - 166
29. Roy Oswalt - 165
30. John Danks - 165

Not much to say here. I like to project conservatively at the top end, so even though it's a good possibility that Lincecum could post another 260+ strikeout season, I'd rather not project someone that high, if only because of uncertainty. That said, all of the pitchers at the top are great strikeout pitchers who all have a good chance of meeting or exceeding their projected strikeout total. There are also a lot of good pitchers that didn't make the top 30. Halladay just missed at 163, Johan Santana is at 154 and John Lackey is at 153.

To see more, visit my projections site.

2010 strikeout leaders

2010 home run leaders

Here are the top 30 projected home run hitters for 2010:

1. Albert Pujols - 48
2. Ryan Braun - 45
3. Evan Longoria - 41
4. Alex Rodriguez - 40
5. Adam Lind - 34
6. Hunter Pence - 34
7. Ryan Howard - 33
8. Prince Fielder - 32
9. Joey Votto - 32
10. Lance Berkman - 31
11. Jay Bruce - 31
12. Ian Stewart - 31
13. Brad Hawpe - 30
14. Carlos Quentin - 29
15. Troy Glaus - 29
16. Aramis Ramirez - 29
17. Adrian Gonzalez - 29
18. Jason Kubel - 29
19. Kendry Morales - 29
20. Adam Dunn - 28
21. Brian McCann - 28
22. Matt Kemp - 28
23. Colby Rasmus - 28
24. Travis Snider - 28
25. Mark Reynolds - 28
26. Carlos Pena - 28
27. Manny Ramirez - 27
28. Miguel Cabrera - 27
29. Chris Young - 27
30. Mark Teixeira - 26

Despite the relatively high totals of several players like Bruce, Stewart, Hawpe, et al., those players do not register quite so highly in overall value. That is because better numbers across the categories rather than great numbers in one category are more likely to produce greater value. Players like Lind and Pence are rated much higher because they are expected to contribute significantly to three, four or even five categories.

Players who sport a precarious strikeout rate like Howard, Dunn, Reynolds and Pena reflect the probability that their power will be less likely to expand beyond their current prodigious rates. Players like Dunn and Pena are also more reliant on their power to create their value, therefore they are affected by a drop in power more than other players.

2010 home run leaders

Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira: who will be better in 2010?

Derek Jeter, A-Rod, and Mark Teixeira all produced very good numbers and were integral to the offensive success of the Yankees in 2009. However, 2010 is a new season full of unexplored possibilities. Let's take a look at what I project for each player in 2010:

Derek Jeter: 109 R, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 12 SB, .3026 AVG, and 618 AB

Alex Rodriguez: 99 R, 40 HR, 121 RBI, 9 SB, .2784 AVG, and 449 AB

Mark Teixeira: 104 R, 26 HR, 127 RBI, 1 SB, .2821 AVG, and 546 AB

How does this add up value-wise for each player? Alex Rodriguez contributes the most to the standings at $16.09 in mixed leagues. Jeter is next at $12.42. Teixeira is last in our group of three at $11.22.

I hedge my bets on A-Rod by factoring his recent injury history into his playing time projections. Even with an injury-adjusted amount of playing time, he should produce enough to justify an earlier selection. Counting stats shouldn't be a problem in the Yankees' lineup.

Despite a substantial projected drop in batting average and stolen bases for Jeter, he still maintains a great deal of value because of his overall production and his position; he ranked third on my projected list of mixed shortstops. Jeter's value increases slightly in AL-only leagues, where he is projected as the top shortstop.

Teixeira's position and reliance on one category (power) for a large part of his value means that a slight dip in home runs results in a relatively reduced value. My projection of only 26 HR for Teixeira doesn't reflect a disbelief in his skills but rather a skepticism of his ability to reproduce the power numbers of 2009; it was the second-highest HR total of his career, after all.

Of all three players, I would be most cautious when drafting Teixeira. ESPN suggests that he is worthy of a first-round pick. I disagree. I think Teixeira will be good, but not good enough to justify the cost of a first-round pick.

Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira: who will be better in 2010?

Why drafting Adam Dunn might just be a bad idea

Adam Dunn's remarkably consistent power numbers again have many people selecting him relatively high. He was taken in the fifth round in an ongoing slow draft in which I am taking part. ESPN ranks him 72nd in their top 300 players, which translates to the end of the sixth round of a 12-team mixed league. They also rank him 14th among first basemen. I am advocating a much more cautious approach to drafting Dunn.

His power numbers have indeed been consistent for quite a few seasons. However, given the year-to-year volatility in 5x5 categories, including power numbers, it is more likely that his numbers change than stay the same. A change toward even better numbers is possible but unlikely, since a positive change would shift his numbers, including power numbers, past the realm of believability. A better bet is that his numbers will decrease, if simply for no other reason than by chance.

My projections foresee 91 R, 28 HR, 85 RBI, 1 SB and a .2406 average in 503 AB. These numbers represent a modest drop in each category from 2009. Dunn is my 21st-ranked first baseman for mixed leagues, providing $1.53 above replacement. He is also my 47th-ranked outfielder, giving teams $2.34 above replacement. The most salient differences between my projections and his actual 2009 season appear in the HR and AVG categories. Considering Dunn set a career high for batting average (barely) in 2009 and taking into account his continuing struggles with the strikeout, a lower average is a prudent prediction. The reduced number of home runs is a result of my idea mentioned above that, in Dunn's case, negative change will be more likely than the status quo or positive change.

Given my projection of him, the smartest thing to do would be to pass on Dunn. In all probability, drafting him in a high round will result in a loss of value. Save your money or your draft pick for a player that will provide positive value. First base is a deep position with plenty of players that can offer similar value for a significantly lower cost.

Why drafting Adam Dunn might just be a bad idea

Inaugural post!

The baseball season is quickly approaching. I can definitely feel the excitement in the air! I'm going to try to blog twice a week, probably on Monday or Thursday. I haven't quite decided what format each post will take, but it will somehow relate to fantasy baseball, whether it's specific players, positions or strategy. Come back on Monday for a new post. In the meantime, please visit my site for my fantasy baseball projections and prospect predictions!

Inaugural post!